Chinook, pink estimates on the rise

Robert Monteith

April 2, 2009.

The boom-bust cycle for the pink salmon run is expected to continue this year, according to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game. Since 2000, pink salmon have been alternating between strong and weak runs. 2009 is expected to be an “up” year for the fishery with an estimated 41 million fish available. That’s slightly below the 10-year average of 44 million, but much better than last year’s harvest, which came in below 20 million.

Actual catch numbers will be determined in the coming weeks as the process is considered through the US-Canada Pacific Salmon Treaty.

Known as a two-year fish, ADF&G are predicting a big return based on the numbers of adult escapement, the number of fish that reached their spawning grounds, in 2007.

Prediction is a two-step process, which accounts for adult escapement and a fry index. Escapement statistics alone produce a forecast of around 52 million pinks in Southeast Alaska. However the fry index, which estimates the amount of fry that will return as adults, is lower than average. That lowered the estimated number of fish to 41 million.

That should still be good news for Southeast fishermen targeting pink salmon after last year’s low catch numbers.

Meanwhile the Southeast Alaska Chinook quota will buck the downward trend it had been facing for the past several years. The sport and commercial harvest was set at 218,000 fish for a gain of 48,000 fish from 2008.

Heavy cuts were distributed last year following a decision made under the Pacific Salmon Treaty that cited concerns for failing fisheries in British Colombia and the Lower 48.

ADF&G have cited improved numbers in important populations as the reason for this year’s increase.